A recent AARP Wisconsin poll shows incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) leading her Republican challenger Eric Hovde in the Wisconsin Senate race. Baldwin holds a 5-point advantage over Hovde, with 50% support compared to Hovde’s 45%. This lead is largely driven by Baldwin’s strong performance among younger voters and Independents.

 Age and Demographic Breakdown:

– Among voters aged 50 and older, Hovde has a slight edge with 50% to Baldwin’s 47%. However, Baldwin’s significant lead among voters under 50 is crucial to her overall advantage.

– Baldwin is ahead by 14 points among voters under 50, with double-digit leads in both the 18-34 and 35-49 age groups.

– Within the 50+ demographic, voters aged 50-64 lean more Republican, with Hovde leading by 7 points, while Baldwin has a slight lead among seniors aged 65 and older.

 Independent Voters and Party Support:

– Independents favor Baldwin by a 13-point margin. She also enjoys near-unanimous support from Democratic voters, unlike President Biden who is losing slight support among his base.

– The gender gap is significant, with women leaning more towards Baldwin and men favoring Hovde by 18 points. Biden is leading Trump with women by only 8 points.

 Educational Attainment and Regional Differences:

– Similar to the presidential race, there are notable differences based on educational attainment and regional distribution of votes. 

– Baldwin is outperforming Biden by a net 11-point margin, reflecting her stronger appeal across different voter segments. Biden is running 7 points behind his 2020 vote share in Wisconsin.

 Comparison with Presidential Race:

– The largest differences are seen among voters under 50, who support Trump over Biden by 4 points, despite having voted for Biden by a 9-point margin in 2020. These voters now support Baldwin by a 14-point margin.

– Among voters aged 50 and older, the differences are less pronounced, but Baldwin’s ability to limit Hovde’s lead among voters aged 50-64 is a key factor in her overall lead.

The AARP poll shows a still competitive Senate race in Wisconsin, with Senator Baldwin currently holding a lead over Eric Hovde. Baldwin’s strong support among younger voters, Independents, and Democrats, as well as her ability to narrow the gap among older voters, positions her well as the race progresses.

For more detailed insights and analysis, visit the AARP poll here.