American families with young children are fleeing big urban counties at an alarming rate, shedding light on critical issues related to urban family policy. The report from the Economic Innovation Group was featured in the Atlantic and it highlights extreme declines for family formation in America’s largest cities. Despite efforts by progressive Democratic leaders to support families through policies like the refundable child tax credit, major cities governed by these leaders are witnessing a sharp decline in their under-5 population.
A Stark Decline in Urban Youth Populations
Data from a recent analysis by Connor O’Brien of the Economic Innovation Group reveals a dramatic decrease in the number of children under five in large urban metros from 2020 to 2023. Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx experienced nearly a 20 percent drop, with similar declines in Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and St. Louis. This trend, which began during the high-pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, continues at a slower yet significant rate.
The Root Causes: Housing and Cost of Living
Several factors contribute to this family exodus, with housing and the cost of living at the forefront. Post-Great Recession, young, college-educated individuals flocked to downtown areas to advance their careers, leading to upscale retail and increased housing costs. Families began to leave as cities like San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, D.C., became more appealing to high-income singles and less so to multiracial families with children. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated this trend, with school closures and the shift to remote work pushing more families out of urban areas.
The high cost of housing in America’s biggest and richest blue cities remains a significant barrier. Housing policy failures ripple across other sectors, including childcare. A 2023 analysis by the U.S. Department of Labor and the Women’s Bureau found that infant childcare in large urban counties consumes a substantial portion of family income. In San Francisco and Chicago, it takes about 20 percent, while in Boston, Manhattan, and Brooklyn, it can reach 30 percent.
Urban Policy Failures
Despite being bastions of progressive policies, many of America’s richest cities are struggling to build sufficient housing. In 2024, cities in red states like Austin, Raleigh, and Phoenix are expected to expand their apartment inventory much faster than blue-state cities such as San Diego, Baltimore, and San Francisco. This disparity highlights a crucial issue: progressive urban areas are failing to provide affordable living conditions for families.
The Implications for Progressive Leadership
The steady decline in young families within urban areas challenges the narrative of progressive urban governance. These cities should ideally showcase the achievements of the modern progressive movement. Instead, they are becoming less attractive to young families due to high living costs and inadequate family-friendly policies.