Shrinking Enrollment Linked to Declining Birth Rates

Recent data from the Marquette Law School suggests that Milwaukee schools are poised to experience a significant decline in enrollment due to sharply falling birth rates. The number of births in the city dropped by 31% since 2006, following a stable birthrate period in the early 2000s. These falling birth rates signal potential issues for the city’s schools, including lower enrollment, competition for students, and funding challenges over the next decade.

Steady First-Grade Enrollment Trends and Their Implications

The data shows that the relationship between births and first-grade enrollments remains relatively steady, with first-grade enrollment typically at 79% to 85% of the births recorded six years earlier. However, as birth counts have continued to fall, future first-grade classes will inevitably shrink. If current trends continue, Milwaukee could see a 19% drop in first-grade enrollment by the 2029-30 school year, potentially impacting the entire K-12 system over the next decade.

Impact of Declining Birth Rates Across School Sectors

This drop will be felt across Milwaukee’s three school sectors—public, charter, and private—each of which will be forced to compete for a dwindling student population. Without a substantial influx of new residents or a rise in birth rates, all sectors may face funding cuts and resource shortages, as state and local funding models are often tied to student enrollment. Schools may be forced to downsize, cut programs, or close altogether if enrollment decreases sharply.

Retention of Families and the Enrollment Gap

Moreover, the decline in student population could also exacerbate issues related to Milwaukee’s ability to retain young families. Many families are leaving the city, further widening the gap between birth rates and school enrollments. Schools may need to implement aggressive strategies to retain students and attract new families to stabilize their enrollment numbers.

MPS Faces Additional Challenges Amid Shrinking Enrollment

This enrollment decline comes at a time when Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) are already struggling with poor educational outcomes. MPS must take practical and innovative approaches to address critical issues like literacy, post-graduation support, teacher training, and the redevelopment or selling off vacant and under utilized MPS school buildings. 

Improving literacy should be central to reform efforts in Milwaukee, particularly using phonics and structured literacy methods proven to work. MPS must accelerate progress by ensuring literacy tutors are properly trained and by involving community leaders. 

The ongoing decline in school enrollment will pose significant challenges for educators, policymakers, and the community. Ensuring the long-term sustainability of Milwaukee schools may require a combination of policy changes, resource reallocations, and initiatives aimed at attracting and retaining young families. Combined with the educational struggles of MPS, the forecasted drop in enrollment could have profound consequences for the city’s education landscape for years to come.