As the 2024 presidential election approaches, one of the most significant issues at stake is the future make-up of the United States Supreme Court. The decisions made by this court have far-reaching implications for American law and society, influencing everything from abortion, to healthcare, immigration, business regulation, climate and energy and beyond. Given the current conservative ideological balance of the court, the type of justices that the next president appoints will be crucial in shaping the judicial landscape for many decades to come.
Current Composition and Conservative Majority
The Supreme Court currently holds a 6-3 conservative majority. This balance has been established through the appointments made by former President Donald Trump, who nominated three justices during his term: Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. These appointments have solidified a conservative tilt in the court’s decisions, affecting rulings on key issues such as repeal of Roe, gun rights, and federal regulatory power.
Potential Appointments by Trump
If Donald Trump were to be re-elected in 2024, it is anticipated that he would continue to nominate conservative judges who prioritize a strict interpretation of the Constitution. In Trump’s first term he nominated judges based on a list developed by the conservative Heritage Foundation. The judicial philosophy of Trump appointees, often referred to as originalism, emphasizes interpreting the Constitution as it was understood at the time it was written. Trump’s past appointments suggest he would choose justices who are likely to support conservative positions on issues like limiting the federal government’s regulatory authority, expanding Second Amendment rights, and abortion.
Potential Appointments by Biden
In contrast, President Joe Biden’s approach to Supreme Court nominations emphasizes a more progressive and broad interpretation of the Constitution. Biden’s nominees would likely support expanded LGBTQ rights, environmental regulations, and expanding and protecting federal regulatory power. Should Biden be re-elected, his appointees would likely counterbalance the current conservative majority by upholding precedent on issues such as Roe v. Wade and reinforcing the federal government’s ability to regulate in areas like climate change and public health.
The Likelihood of Upcoming Nominations
The likelihood of Supreme Court nominations during the next presidential term is significant. Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, two of the most senior members of the court, are both in their mid-70s. Although there is no mandatory retirement age for Supreme Court justices, the potential for vacancies due to retirement or other reasons is a factor. The next president may have the opportunity to appoint one or more justices, thereby impacting the court’s ideological balance.
The stakes of the 2024 election for the Supreme Court extend beyond the immediate future. Supreme Court justices serve lifetime appointments, meaning their influence can last for decades. As voters consider their choices in the 2024 election, the potential changes to the Supreme Court and the types of justices each candidate would appoint is a significant issue that has not received the attention it deserves. This decision will not only affect immediate legal landscapes but will also shape the direction of American jurisprudence for generations.